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景区游览实名登记 新冠肺炎疫情对旅游业影响分析

2020-02-28

原标题:景区游览实名登记 新冠肺炎疫情对旅游业影响分析

文化和旅游部下发《旅游景区恢复开放疫情防控措施指南》,要求各地旅游景区继续实施疫情防控,实行实名制购票,记录入园游客联络方式、来往交通等信息,利用大数据等手段,做好游客信息动态监测。

根据指南,景区恢复开放应坚持分区分级原则,不搞“一刀切”,疫情高风险地区旅游景区暂缓开放,疫情中、低风险地区的旅游景区开放由当地党委政府决定。

众所周知,旅游业重度依赖于假期,尤其是黄金周。受疫情影响,今年春节假期、五一两大黄金周,旅游、文娱均遭遇重创。

(一)旅游业损失或超万亿,景点游乐场集体停工

疫情对商业社服行业的影响机理:影响顺序从餐饮→旅游→零售,餐饮反应最为直接和迅速,旅游需求推后逐步释放,疫情次年基本恢复到往年水平。

一些娱乐场所已经开始集体裁员,带来一批工人失业,由于春节和五一黄金周直接受影响,今年的假期还可能减少,疫情对旅游业全年的影响将更加深远、渐进。

1、旅行社:疫情加速行业的优胜劣汰,迫使转型

轻资产运营,负债小,但旅行社这个行业逐步进入衰退期,这次疫情会加速旅行社淘汰和转型。疫情期间,全国近4万旅行社130万导游面临生存问题。导游收入弹性大,基本上靠提成,这半年他们的收入下降会很明显。

2、景区:大型景区抗风险强,但长远影响不容小觑

不少景区归属国有企业、大型企业,虽然亏损严重,但依然具有一定的抗风险能力。但是,这些年,房地产企业快速扩张的各类小镇、娱乐城,负债率会更高,风险会更大。这次疫情可能加速这类资源甩卖、重组。比如海航陷入债务困境,开市四天海航创新跌幅-16.34%。

3、酒店业:住店需求受冲击明显,企稳回升的经营拐点后移到明年

由于经济下行压力不减,自 2018 年开始酒店行业的经营情况一直处于底部徘徊,我们预计今年可以企稳回升,但这次疫情改变了既有逻辑,预计此次疫情期间对于酒店行业必然造成较大冲击,酒店行业的企稳回升拐点可能要后移到明年。

4、免税店:一季度营收大幅减少,短期影响大

目前海南地区四家免税店全部暂停营业,恢复营业时间未定。但春节期间为海南旅游旺季,且一季度海南离岛免税收入占全年的 30%左右,故此次停业对一季度影响较大,但长期增长逻辑不变,疫情结束后会较快恢复增长。

(二)中研普华总结:新冠疫情影响更加深远,旅游业经营业绩拐点或待明年

疫情后,旅游业会有什么变化?

由于新型冠状病毒的爆发,春节期间的酒店业绩显著恶化。1月14日,中国大陆地区的酒店入住率达到70%,到1月26日,入住率降至17%。而随着疫情发展,我们预计,在1月26日后,酒店入住率是继续进一步下滑的。此外,景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区,人流密集,短期内游客会选择回避,同时大型景区依赖黄金周。

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