Bali Agung volcano signs of large-scale eruption again more and more obvious, scientists have warned that this is likely to repeat the scene in 1963 eruption of Agung volcano eruption was led to nearly 1,600 deaths.

Since this weekend, Agung volcano white and dark ash column reached nearly 10,000 feet high, near the crater, there have been lava flow.

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Indonesian authorities have raised the volcano alert level to the highest level 4. Fearing the volcanic eruption will instantly Bali major airports have been closed, at least 445 flights were canceled, resulting in nearly 60,000 passengers stranded. Indonesia's national disaster reduction agency said, after assessing the situation, will consider on Tuesday to reopen the airport.

Some scientists have said that from the recent events Agung volcano view, could form a large eruption in 1963 of a similar size, which ejected ash may be up to 10 million tons, thereby causing global temperatures in a year's time dropped 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius.

Agung volcano last erupted in 1963, when the ejection of volcanic ash reached a height of 20 kilometers, 7.5 kilometers out of the magma, volcanic ash drifted even 1000 km outside the capital, Jakarta. That eruption caused a total of 1549 people were killed and more than 20 million people lost their livelihoods.

David Pyle of Oxford University volcano expert told AFP, in the worst case is a repeat of the 1963 eruption, possibly even more serious. He suggested that people in the vicinity of the volcano 10-12 km radius of the area are to be evacuated, but people do not need the whole island were evacuated. Bali residents of more than 400 million people, the number of visitors all year round at about tens of thousands of people.

He said Agung volcano and its current performance is very similar to the beginning of the 1963 eruption, so the "possibility of a large eruption is very high, but at the moment from the real eruption may be a few days or even weeks."

In addition, the British Open University (The Open University) Professor David Rothery, also said in recent weeks as people feared, Agung volcano may eventually there will be a big eruption. He also warned that the ash harmful to people's respiratory system, so that can not grow crops, houses collapsed, the case of rain, the formation of dangerous lahars. With the rainy season in Bali region, this risk is also increased.

The reason volcanic ash will have a serious impact on flight safety, which is currently in Bali all inbound and outbound international flights were grounded, a visiting professor at Cranfield University, UK (Cranfield University) Guy Gratton said ash is mainly caused damage to aircraft engines , reducing its efficiency and may even make it stop.

In addition, if the runway is covered with volcanic ash, aircraft can easily slip out of control during takeoff and landing.

Volcanic eruptions will undoubtedly have an impact on Bali's tourism industry billions of dollars, but the extent of the impact depends on how the volcanic eruption of intensity and duration, scope and impact of volcanic ash. Bali tourists last year, a total of nearly 500 million people, but since the beginning of September this year, Agung volcano activity, tourism nearby volcano significant decline.

Agung volcano eruption affected areas live about 10 million people, but so far, only 40,000 people to evacuate, some people do not want to leave the throwing animals, which some people consider themselves safe so far, no need to evacuate. Indonesia's National Disaster Management Commission spokesman said it had sent people to stay away from these areas to persuade the public, and will take coercive measures to force them to evacuate if necessary.

In the face book Indonesian National Disaster Management Committee, he wrote volcanic ash continued to spray, accompanied by explosive volcanic eruptions, and muffled explosion, the place from top of the hill, 12 km away can be heard, "the evening to see the fire more and more, suggesting that a larger eruption coming. "

Mark Tingay geological experts told the BBC, volcanic eruptions is difficult to predict the specific time, it is difficult to accurately judge how the situation will develop. But he also said that the Indonesian authorities seem to have been well prepared, both in the current situation under control.