Robert Farley, a Senior Lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, has listed Taiwan as the second most likely place where World War III could erupt next year with North Korea the first most likely place.

In his article published in The National Interest on December 15, the scholar, professor and contributor lays many factors into the table.

The People’s Liberation Army recently conducted a military exercise on Sunday where an H-6K bomber plane accompanied by two Su-30 fighter jets performed “encirclement” patrols close to the island, South China Morning Post reported.

Military observer, Antony Wong Dong, who is based in Macau, called the exercise very unusual.

Another factor that Farley mentioned in the article is the recent statement coming from a Chinese diplomatic leader, saying the country would attack Taiwan if it allows a United States Navy ship to dock in Kaohsiung.

“The day that a U.S. Navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force,” diplomat Li Kexin said at an event in the Chinese embassy in Washington on December 8, Reuters reported.

Farley noted that while this perception can still be considered premature, it still remains quite dangerous.

The United States, however, responded with “equanimity,” said Farley, as it condemns China’s move and officially announcing a major arms sale to Taiwan worth $1.45 billion, while the former appealed to the latter’s government to tighten its sanctions to the hermit nation, North Korea.

“For a relationship that demands predictability and careful diplomacy, important players in China and the United States seem eager to embrace uncertainty, which could lead to devastating conflict,” Farley wrote.